AFL

There’s a bit of a weather watch in Melbourne at the moment and with two of this weekend’s finals at the MCG, the predicted deluge could impact betting.

The favs just keep getting shorter and shorter for the first week of the finals. We have taken a bet of $10,000 on St Kilda at $3.30 to beat the Cats and another $5000 on them with 18.5 start, but that’s very much the exception this week.

There’s massive money going through Geelong in multis and the Cats-Hawthorn-Collingwood treble. Punters are staying out of Sydney at the moment, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they firmed up if the other fancies all get the prize.

Hawthorn has firmed from $1.75 to $1.67. Significantly we took one bet of $7500 on the Hawks to cover the 6.5 point line from a punter who backs Fremantle nearly every week.

No one wants to back the Western Bulldogs, but the 25.5 point line is scaring punters from taking the minus on the Pies – at least until the weather situation becomes clearer.

In Flag betting, Geelong are $2.50 and Collingwood $2.90. St Kilda are next best at $6, with Hawthorn now joining the Western Bulldogs on the next line at $14.

Some agencies have Dane Swan at $2.50 for the Brownlow and to my mind that’s over the odds. You would think he would have earned at least two points last week, yet he stayed at the same price. We have him at $2 and regard it as a two-man race, with Gary Ablett$3.50. Luke Hodge is next best at $9.

Rugby League

Most games this week mean something, which isn’t always the case in the final round, so we are anticipating a good betting round. Melbourne were flogged last week and bookies copped it in the process, but they are set to go around as the shortest priced favourite of the season against Newcastle, with $1.08 the current quote.

Canberra arrive in Brisbane in red hot form against a Brisbane side still missing Darren Lockyer, but some punters think the Broncos can do the impossible and there’s been support at $2.65 and the +5.5 point line.

Manly have hardly set the world on fire but they face Canterbury who have little to play for and the Sea Eagles are rock solid at $1.45.

We took another $4000 this week on St George-Illawarra to win the title at $3. The Tigers are into $6.50 and then it’s the Titans, Roosters and Penrith all sharing the $7 line.

Rugby Union

I would have thought Wallaby fans could have taken plenty of heart from last week’s match, but they have been shunned this week, easing from $3.45 to $3.60, with a 9 point line on offer.

Punters clearly expect the Springboks to inflict more pain on the Wallabies this weekend and they have been confidently backed.

New Zealand have firmed from $2 into $1.90 to win next year’s World Cup after their recent dominance over South Africa ($4.75) and Australia ($5). France is next in betting at $11.

Cricket

The summer game has obviously been back in the news this week and as a result we have turned off markets for both the 2011 ODI World Cup and the 2012 Twenty 20 World Cup, with so much uncertainty about what may happen to Pakistan, as they are right in the market in both of those tournaments.

Punters continue to chip away at England to win the Ashes this summer. After their belting of Pakistan last week (which now has serious question marks over it), we took another $2000 on the Poms at $3.25 and they have firmed to $3.15. The Aussies are $1.70 favourites, with a Drawn series $5.50.

NFL

It’s the last round of the NFL pre-season this weekend, which means we’re nearing a kickoff for the 2010-11 season.

Indianapolis are the $8.50 favourites in a wide open Super Bowl market. The Cowboys and Saints share the second line at $11, but money has come for just about every team. The Packers and Chargers have both trimmed to $12 from an opening quote of $16, while the Jets are $17 into $15.

Sports Alive will have the NFL action covered each and every round of the season.

Golf

Tiger Woods heads betting for this week’s Deutsche Bank Championship, but as has been the case all season, punters don’t want a bar of him. He’s at $9 with no takers.

Phil Mickelson is a $16 chance and he’s been popular, as has Jim Furyk ($21).

There’s a bit of confidence around the Aussies this week. Adam Scott heads the charge and he’s been well tried at $26, while Jason Day has firmed from $51 into $41.

The European Masters is also on this weekend, with Miguel Angel Jiminez sharing the top line with Edoardo Molinari and Charl Schwartzel at $16. Schwartzel has been best backed of that trio, firming up from $21.

Bradley Dredge has been knocking on the door of a big win for a while and is $21 into $17.

Horse Racing

So You Think’s winning return to racing in last week’s Memsie Stakes caused a flurry of activity on the pre-post markets. While he predictably firmed up in Cox Plate betting, the Bart Cummings trained star also attracted good support to win the Melbourne Cup, for which he now shares the top line of betting with Shocking at $15.

Moudre is high in Caulfield Cup charts, but we have also had backing for him in the Melbourne Cup, where he’s $51 into $23 this week.

Eagle eyed punters also snapped up $51 about Manighar, who is expected to travel Down Under and is now a $34 chance.

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